Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment

The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain.